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Good Hockey, Good Wireless

by mobileman (03/10/2008 - 03:04)


It always strikes me as somewhat amazing how much SMS and MMS services have seamlessly integrated themselves with mainstream activities.  As an example (and no surprise to those who really know me!), I will use this afternoon's Ranger/Bruin hockey game as an example.  Before you send me lots of comments and e-mail pointing out that what I really wanted to write this blog installment about was the thrilling game, I plead 100% guilty.  I will try to at least give some lip service to mobile Internet services while I carry on about the thriller in the "World's most famous arena."

The Rangers and Bruins started the day separated by just one point in the standings, with the Broadway Blues holding the advantage.  The Eastern Conference is very tight this year, with only 6 points separating the top 7 teams! 

The teams traded excellent scoring chances in the first period with the Rangers testing the Boston goalposts, back boards and protective netting, as much as they challenged the Bruin goaltender. But with no pucks finding the twine of either goal, the period ended scoreless. 

The second period was similar to the first, with the intensity turned up several notches.  Jaromir Jagr powered by the Bruin defense on three occasions for close-in tries, denied on each by Jay Auld, the Bruin net minder.  The Bruins finally did put some sustained pressure on the Rangers, with Henrik up to the challenge.  The second intermission came with no goals.

A special shout-out at this point must go to a Blue Shirt faithful in the "Blue Section."  With exactly 1 minute and 5 seconds left in the period, he yelled out, "Hey, how much time is left in the period?"   The announcer of course then followed with "One minute left in the period."  The fan responded with a loud "Thank You!"   19,000 people laughed.  At least the tension of the game was broken for a bit.

The third period was frenetic.   Both goalies made acrobatic saves that seemed to defy the laws of physics.  At one point, Sean Avery made a great power move to the net and flicked the puck off the left post -- groan!   Both teams tried the old tried-and-true method of pushing the defenders and the goalie, along with the puck, into the net.  In both cases, the referees were close at hand to restore order.

 With about 7 minutes left in the game, Scott Gomez completely undressed a Bruin defensemen, stealing the puck in the offensive slot area.  Gomez came in on Auld totally uncontested ... and missed.

Both teams traded some good scoring chances in the 5-minute overtime, but it was obvious that this one would be settled "Mano a Mano" -- with a shootout.  After regular and OT play, both goalies had turned away a combined  64 shots.   That's a whole season of shots for a soccer team!

(If you've stuck it out this far in the blog, I promise to have something about mobile services at the end!)

(Also, if you've stuck it out this long, there is a good chance we share some DNA!)

The shootout -- a best of three -- was as nerve- racking as it gets in a big game.  Both teams missed their first shots.  Nigel Dawes, a Ranger rookie, took the second shot and ringed it off the left post and into the back of the net!   After nearly 3 hours, a puck finally entered the net!  The Bruins missed their final two shots and as Henrik stopped David Krejci, bedlam broke out at the Garden. 

Playoff-atmosphere hockey in mid-March.  Very nice.!

If you want to see video highlights of the game, follow this link:

http://rangers.nhl.tv/team/console?hlg=20072008,2,1037

So here is the wireless angle on this joyous day:

 At that start of the game, I updated my "microblog" with my whereabouts and the status of the game.  During the game there were three wireless polls taken of the audience.  I sent an MMS picture of my daughter to be displayed on the arena's Jumbo-Tron.  At one point, my daughter got lost in the arena (actually, she knew where she was;  I didn't).  She texted me her location, which was back at our seats. ( I can put this in here because my wife does not read this blog!)  And lastly, this entire blog was written on my BlackBerry on the train ride home.  A very full day indeed!

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Flat Rate for Wireless: Is this the way of nature for all telecom services?

by mobileman (02/21/2008 - 18:11)

Flat Rate for Wireless: Is this the way of nature for all telecom services?


In the last couple of days, the major carriers have announced competing flat-rate wireless deals. No more counting minutes. These new plans might be as significant as the original AT&T one-rate plan that revolutionized wireless pricing. I say “might” because the price is still rather high and the plans all but eliminate the family plan users. For the heaviest of wireless users, this plan can save money and eliminate hassle, and follows on the heels of similar flat-rate plans for wireless messaging and data usage.


A side benefit for the carriers is the eventual reduction in billing complications.


Do all telecommunication services eventually migrate to a flat-rate pricing structure when they mature?


I say Yes. With excess capacity and variable demand, flat-rate pricing is a good option.


Cable and satellite television are flat rate, most home wire line services (circuit and VOIP) are flat rate, Internet services are flat rate. As a communication service matures, the variable rate of the next bit approaches zero. As the variable cost of a new subscriber is virtually eliminated, the flat-rate pricing schemes emerge.

The value-added services that are upsells on these flat-rate services, tend to be themselves flat-rate services. Examples are HBO for $15/month, Navigator services for $9.99/month, Internet Virus protection at $5/month, etc.


With variable delivery costs plummeting, the biggest expense becomes attracting a new subscriber and retention once a subscriber signs up for the service.


The exceptions to this trend are royalty and license fees for media and content. The creators of content expect to be paid for the distribution of their intellectual property. This is a very logical assumption.

The technology that distributes their content is training the public to expect monthly subscription prices. It is inevitable that most media will also be purchased as a flat-rate subscription. The key will be the manner in which the content creators are paid for their product, since you cannot generate good music, video, games, ringtones, books, etc., at zero variable cost.

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Wireless advertising is coming of age

by mobileman (02/01/2008 - 17:32)

The use of advertising on a mobile device is poised for the big take-off. There are several factors that are contributing to the rightness of the model, right now. 

The easiest model to understand is the willingness of large content providers to spend advertising investment to attract subscribers to their premium-SMS services. Today, much of that investment is directed at the Web. There is evidence to suggest that the effectiveness and conversion rates for ads on a handset, for services that are targeted for the handset, is superior to the Web.

This conclusion is almost completely intuitive.

If you are sitting in a stadium and you see a beer commercial, you are more likely to purchase a beer, immediately. If you are instead in an environment that does not have that immediate purchase opportunity (like watching the game on TV), the effectiveness of that ad to drive immediate sales is reduced.

 

 So, ads for handset-targeted services seem like a complete no-brainer for the industry.

These ads can come in various forms.

Carriers are opening their Wireless Web (WAP) portals to advertising through both agencies and direct contract. With this model, the carriers can get a cut of the ad revenue. The real estate bears limited space, so ads are required to be as condensed as possible to be effective.

Other models include MMS interstitial slides and SMS tags. Both of these models have been experimented with and have not been widely deployed — yet.

The next wave of ads is also being brought in through the Trojan Horse that is a combination of Smartphones and Google services.

  With Internet-compatible browsing on iPhones and others, the traditional Web advertising model is being dragged on handsets. Based on browser type, ads will be targeted on Smartphones for services that are applicable for the phone itself and for the mobile consumer. 

 These latest models have the potential to remove the carrier from the advertising value chain. 

I am sure there are significant discussions throughout the carrier community on trying to derive value from this emerging and potentially huge revenue stream. Anyone care to weigh in? I welcome your comments!  

 

 

 

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The Mobile World is Flat

by mobileman (12/30/2007 - 15:31)

I spent the last week at our corporate headquarters in Italy. It is always interesting to compare and contrast the mobile market environment in markets outside of the U.S.   For many years, the U.S. suffered a deserved mobile service inferiority complex. It had been stated that all the really cool stuff was happening in Europe or Japan. That has changed.
To quote one of my favorite writers, Thomas L. Friedman of the New York Times, “The world is flat!” Here are a couple of examples:
The vast majority of my colleagues have BlackBerrys. The BlackBerry device itself and the service were created in Canada but were first introduced in a serious manner in the U.S.   
While flipping through the multi-national channels on the TV in my hotel room, it was hard the miss the influx of German iPhone commercials for T-Mobile (as well as some other German commercials that I will discuss later!). Many other advertisements for mobile phones are iPhone-esque. They feature large touchscreens and virtual keyboards, they play Mp3s and have Wi-Fi.
With the U.S. market providing innovative, global-leading devices, and with premium VAS skyrocketing, I hereby declare the official end of the U.S. inferiority complex. I am not raising the stars and stripes in a jingoistic manner, but rather to point out some rough parity in creating leading service models.
As Friedman proclaims in his bestseller, the global economy for goods and services is permeating all aspects of our economy, and this includes mobile value-added services. Mobile devices and value-added services can be sourced from any land with data center and Internet connectivity.
There are still obvious differentiations and cultural norms that create service differences across markets and continents. The service and device differences are now dominated by local norms and market conditions, not technology or market maturity.
One very obvious difference is the use of late-night (after midnight), continuous commercials on German stations. As best I could, either there is a severe clothing shortage for well-endowed women, or there is a market for mobile VAS in text sex chat, mobile adult videos and adult wallpapers. Have you picked out the common theme to these services? I cannot imagine a similar all-night commercial on American television.
All in all, the mobile world may be flat, but local market differences certainly make it very diverse!

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Mouse No Longer Roars

by mobileman (10/01/2007 - 05:10)

The big news that nearly got lost last week was Disney closing up its remaining MVNO. Now, both ESPN and Disney mobile have failed in the MVNO game.  
Despite the MVNO failures, Disney will profit from wireless in a huge way.  
  
What should we as an industry learn from these two expensive attempts?
On the surface, both companies have the consensus prerequisites for a successful MVNO. 
They have immense name recognition, strong brands, loyal and large clientele, and enough money to fill the Superbowl, or Cinderella’s castle for that matter. Both ultimately failed for similar reason.
 
Reason number 1:
Disney is not in the wireless services business. 
This may seem institutively backwards. After all, what MVNO is in the wireless business before it starts? Answer: Virgin. Which MVNO is successful? See answer to previous question. The challenges of the wireless MVNO business, with thin margins, are unique to big brands. Disney is the premier storytelling and content king.
   
Reason number 2:
A key to a successful MVNO is retail distribution and promotion.
Disney never seemed to be able to ramp up a critical mass of retailers for its mobile services. This is a curious failure since Disney products are found in many of the largest retail superstores. My assumption is that the toy and apparel buyers at Wal-Mart and Target have little in common with the buyers of telecommunications equipment. The MVNO sale in retail establishments is tough on any level. The retailers are likely to prefer the big post-pay brands that give them a residual on the service contract to a onetime prepaid sale. I cannot remember seeing a single ESPN or Disney phone anywhere I've shopped.
 
 
Reason number 3:
Exactly who is going to buy a Disney phone anyway? 
Being a father of grade school-aged children, I get opportunities to conduct informal “focus groups” with my kids' friends when they are over at my house.
They all seem to be getting mobile phones around 5th or 6th grade. The trend is clearly getting younger. I would ask them who would want a Disney phone? The looks of horror I received was uniform. A Disney phone? “That’s for kids!" echoed one 9-year-old, “I want a Krazr!” If this crowd was rejecting the Disney, then who was left? 6-year-olds? The purchasers of these phones were parents. Parents do respond to constant badgering from their kids. (Gee, I hope my kids are not reading this!) Preteens want what teens have – the mainline phones from the big carriers. Not a Mickey Mouse phone.
 
Reason number 4:
Family plans rule.
This was a huge miss on the part of both ESPN and Disney. In the case of ESPN, Dad is getting on the same phone plan as the rest of the family. For Disney, junior is getting the $10/month family plan deal. You might make a case for single men getting a cool ESPN phone, if ESPN and sports content was not available on every other phone! For Disney, there are very few financially independent 6-year-olds with purchasing power. The whole family was expected to convert to Disney. (Not.)
 
Reason Number 5
Be careful with premium pricing
Both plans were post-paid and premium-priced compared to the big guys. With ESPN content available everywhere and the major carriers quickly catching up with kid-friendly phones and plans, there was no room for a premium-priced Disney alternative.
 
 
 
 
And now, why Disney can be huge in wireless.
Disney is a content monster. No company has the breadth of “Monday Night Football” to “High School Musical.” The wireless medium is another cash machine for Disney, just like DVD, theater, toys, clothing, theme parks, cable channels and the Internet. They attract and retain audiences in all genres. The mobile audience is, and will continue to be, a lucrative venue for the Disney Kingdom of Content.
 
 

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Blog Storming!

by mobileman (09/20/2007 - 16:22)

Blog Storming! 
During the past couple of years, the blogosphere has been full of mobile-application projections and predictions. I have blogged about many of these in the past months. Location-Based Services (LBS), On-Deck Portals, Off-Deck Services, microblogs, video, games, TV, chaperone services, the Iphone, the Google phone … the list goes on. 
My question is, what's next? The trends that we are seeing in Web and mobile make a specific prognostication somewhat risky. But of course, here is my try:
I believe that a mobile device is fundamentally a personal communications device. We have already seen the early trend of the “type and style” of a device making a fashion statement or reflecting your inner self in some deep Madison Avenue ad manner. This was furthered by the ringtone explosion. 
Consumers wanted others to hear their ringtones because it makes a statement in some psychological way about who they are. This is true even if the ringtone goes off in the middle of a bunch of strangers. It is part of self-definition. On the Web, this trend of self-definition is being carried on by the explosion of blog and networking sites.
Since I believe that the past is a good roadmap to the future – the next big thing in wireless will center on new ways to self-define and announce yourself to the world. We have gone through the visual (what phone I have) and the audible (what ringtone I have). The connection with self-definition and the Web is inevitable. The next big wave of mobile application will involve the ability to define yourself through your mobile- application environment. 
Microblogging from your phone, allowing your friends to track where you are (LBS) on your Web social network, streaming live video and audio from your live experience to your Web persona. In essence, this all equates to consumers becoming real-time publishers of their own reality-TV channel. Call it "Blog Storming." Where am I, What am I doing, What am I seeing, What am I hearing and experiencing. 
The new generation of Mobile 2.0 applications will have to be self-awareness and self-reporting. It is still intrusive to stop what you are doing to send that SMS or MMS. You take yourself out of the activity to send a message about. The application must be recording your environment seamlessly.
I probably would have not predicted the popularity of reality television, but if watching people chasing each other around on some deserted island is good TV, then watching millions of people run around in their daily lives would prove irresistible. MTV is as much the reality network as it is a music network!
While I would never want to do this myself – the attraction of this type of application and society's voyeuristic side will make Blog Storming the perfect storm.
 
 

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My review of some LBS services

by mobileman (08/31/2007 - 15:01)

My Favorite LBS Services

This is the big travel weekend, so a short review of my three favorite LBS services seems in order. In the New York metro area there are four main destinations, each with its unique lingo. For the Labor Day weekend people leave “The City” and go either “Upstate” (which for City dwellers is anywhere that is more than 1 mile north of the Bronx!), “Out to the Island” (which is what you say if you go to Long Island but don’t have a place in the Hamptons), “Down the Shore” (that’s the Jersey shore), or “in the mountains” (either the Poconos or Catskills – Since there are no coal miners in the city – the phrase “in the mountains is curious)


For travel directions it is hard to beat the Verizon navigator service for ease of use and value. I used to carry a handheld Garmin unit (cost ~$500, plus map updates). It worked fine, but was one more item to carry. I also had to spend extra money on map updates and remember to download the right detail maps before I went on a trip. For the VZW Navigator feature, I pay about $10/month and the maps and local details are all network based. The voice and map directions are great and they have saved me several times (even walking in “The City”). The cost has a breakeven of over 4 years with the purchase of a standalone unit. It is a good value.


Another feature that I have long trumpeted as the first killer LBS app is rolling out as VZW Chaperone service. This is the long awaited kid finer service. You can locate your kids on a map and get an alert if they leave a specific area. This is a great feature for the pre-teen age group.


Lastly, once you reach your destination you will need to look up restaurants, movies and other local services. My choice for that service is the still un-matched Vindigo service. Vindigo has been around seemingly since the dinosaurs roamed the earth (in Internet time). It is still a great service, albeit you need to know where you are since it does not have LBS hooks with the phone. For destination travel (pleasure or business) it still works well for finding that seafood place or reading a review of a movie before you suggest it to your fellow vacationers. It even can provide you directions and traffic conditions along the way. If this service ever integrated true LBS location it would rock.

 For this weekend I will be going to none of these classic destinations. Instead I will enjoy a long “Honey –do” weekend. Have a good long weekend!

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Diversity in the Mobile Workplace

by mobileman (08/23/2007 - 05:08)


Diversity in our Mobile Marketplace makes workforce diversity a double necessity.
 
In my previous blog I presented a slice of the diverse life we have in New York. Living and working in New York provides a Mobile company such as Upoc Networks an advantage in providing innovative services that reach a diverse marketplace.
 
 
 
Many companies spend endless hours training and talking about diversity in the workplace; we live it, at work and at home.


Upoc Networks workforce has about 50 employees. The standard EEO classifications of race, color, religion, sex, national origin barely scratch the surface of Upoc’s diversity. By EEO standards we have, at any one time, over 20 combinations of classifications.


When I think of diversity I add other factors such social-economic background, age, education, work experience and sexual orientation. My awareness of our total diversity is obviously incomplete, but I would venture to say that we would be hard pressed to find more than a couple of employees who were similar in all aspects.  This is the workforce we draw from, this is the city where we are headquartered, and most importantly , this is representative of the marketplace in which we compete.


We did not sit down as a Management team and place various diversity hiring goals, it has been not necessary. I have observed throughout my career that if your existing organization has diversity, it will attract and retain diversity.


There are obviously many companies and regions that have diversity, but no city has the history and the reputation of being the world’s melting pot.

New York is a city with over 100 nationalities, every major religion (and probably more than few that are not so “major”), every ethnicity, culture, race, creed, sexual orientation, political affiliation and social/economic status. 

What is perhaps truly amazing is that this patchwork quilt of cultures co-exist in relative harmony within New York.

Moslems and Jews, Blacks and Whites, Japanese, Chinese and Koreans, Catholics and Protestants , Serbs, Russians, Hispanics, the list goes on and on. In other areas of the world the same groups might be at war, but in New York they seem to blend and even feed off of each others culture.


It must be something in the water!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New York, New York.

 

 

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Social Networking Epiphany

by mobileman (08/09/2007 - 03:45)

In my search to understand the fundamental motivations of social networkers, I decided to start by examining the evolution of my own social networks. I came across a couple of interesting observations (at least interesting to me). I cataloged my social networks from childhood to present day. 

Here is the list:

Immediate family, extended family, school friends, religious network, sports team members, high school friends, college friends, work colleagues, business networks, and neighborhood friends.

One observation I made was that the number of active social networks was at the highest and potentially most volatile in my teen years and early 20s. These are the social networks that set the foundation for adulthood. How I related to each social network was slightly different. 

Sometimes the social network would define who I was, and sometimes the opposite was true. Even the name I was (am) known by in the different social networks varied.

 The obvious example are: Steve (Parents and Family), Dad (Kids) and Spence (School, High School and College Friends).  

Thinking about Web 2.0 in real life social networking terms yielded me an epiphany. You can imagine how difficult it is in anyone’s teen years to be labeled and categorized within a particular social group. The virtual social networks are a way out of that dilemma for teens. They permit high school and college students to take more direct control of defining who and what they are. 

It allows them to redefine themselves at will. It grabs control from the mass network at large and creates a better sense of ego. It is no longer the roll of the “in crowd” to define the social network and status of others. 

The virtual social networks are the great equalizer in the social status game. This is a game that is most important to high school and college age students.  

Next installment is the most interesting social network I ever belonged to …

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Social Networking -- What we learned from the past

by mobileman (08/01/2007 - 23:16)

The lessons of CB radio --
 Why it died as a mass social network 

There are several reasons why the CB radio phenomenon died out. Here are my top reasons and why they relate to today’s big social networks:

The stated motivation for entering the social network was not consistent with the activity of the network. Uh? Let me explain. Most people bought into the commercial promotion that the CB was a safety and security device. You could somehow contact help if you broke down on a lonely deserted road. Help was just a “breaker, breaker, good buddy, please save my butt!” call away. So, you would tell your friends and family, “I’m getting this to be safe!” 

Of course that was a total lie.

The CB was a social networking toy! You could play at creating and honing a new persona every time you pushed the transmit button. You could be Southern (which was the favorite, especially of Northerners, or you could be "the boss" or the man "the man"). Women were treated with equal status (especially if they knew the 10-20 of "smokey and his camera"). While there were no doubt illegal or immoral activities, the norms of the community and the total openness of communication served as a self-regulation. It gave the user of CB radio freedom to be however they wanted to be. It was the first mass social network with anonymous communication that created its own social norms.

The times that I actually discovered who I was really talking to, well, became kind of boring.

The main usage as a social networking device let to that need being more powerfully filled by the explosion of instant messaging in the late 1980s and 1990s. Social networking was no longer limited to 5 miles of random road, but the whole world. 

Strike One for the CB  

     

The consumers who actually used the CB because of safety reasons probably discovered that relying on random strangers to help you in your hour of need is as likely to bring “bad guys” as it is “good guys” to your rescue. Another device was now being marketed as the safety device you should have in your car – the mobile phone.  The mobile phone is of course a social networking device with one-to-one precise communication. It was better to call the AAA to fix your car than rely on “Cruisin' Cougar,” “Lusty Lady,” or “Bandit Eye.”

  Strike Two for the CB

 

 

 

 

 The CB Social networks were random and without context other than you were traveling somewhere and didn’t want to get a speeding ticket. This is not the form of social networking that creates “sticky” bonds. No one really grew attached to their “Good Buddies.” It was rare that you would find the same person twice, and if you did, it could just be another person with the same handle. In general, you did not care – no context means no passion about a topic and no ties amongst the members. Thus, when alternate means of random social networking emerged, or safety devices became available, there was nothing underneath all the hype of the CB craze to sustain it. 

 Strike Three for CB.

 

 

 

 

 

 The point to learn is that social networks require a sustainable context (Topic, Group, Personal Blog, etc.), that they serve the fundamental need that attracted its members (photo sharing, video sharing, music, self-esteem, etc.), and that bonds are created between the members, both through their personas or their real identities. The underlying technology that serves this community must not stagnate. It must evolve to better fulfill these needs in the future or risk becoming another “CB story.”

 

 

 

 Some more thoughts on today’s social networks in my next installment.