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Social Networking, Vegas Style

by mobileman (04/11/2008 - 17:37)

Now that I have recovered from the whirlwind week at the CTIA show in Las Vegas, I can reflect on some of the events of the week.   I have to plead guilty to “stirring the pot” and creating some interesting debate in my panel session on social networking. 
  The topic of monetizing social networks on mobile networks was discussed, with the obvious conclusion that advertising will have to pay a key role in any sustainable business model. The debate ensued on the relative roles and economics of this model as it applies to the network operator and the social network owner. Network operators have a tremendous database of potentially useful marketing data for third-party application providers to utilize in maximizing the ad inventory of their products. In the past, and for good legal reasons, the privacy of this data has been honored and not exploited in a maximum economic manner. Now enter the social networks.
 
A social networking profile has more information than exists in a carrier marketing database. Profiles are volunteered, are deep with interests, preferences, activities, relationships, friends, etc. The data housed by the social network is a potential bonanza for advertisers. The inability of network carriers to fully exploit their consumer data could become a moot point as the mega social networks integrate their data with mobile ad networks.
The next issue that was debated was the relative power between a social network that may have over 100M members and a network operator that has 60-20M subscribers. Most business discussions with operators have a clear pecking order. In general, the carrier is picking and choosing the best partners, from many, which will maximize their revenue and the customers’ needs. 
  There are very few application providers who have this discussion with an operator as an equal or superior level of relative strength. One example that obviously leaps to mind is Apple. The iPhone introduction and partnership appears to be a relationship between “equals.”   The existing introduction of large social networking onto mobile devices seems like a partnership of equally motivated and powerful partners, each bringing significant assets to the table. In the future, will the large social networks try to cut similar revenue-sharing arrangements as Apple? Will they be able to? And lastly, will it matter? 

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Will iPhone really change the mobile Web?

by mobileman (01/14/2008 - 15:52)

The big news announced by Google – at least to us mobile types – is the extraordinary number of impressions the Google application in iPhone is generating. It is time to declare the beginning of the end of the existing Web application paradigm on wireless devices. The distinctions between the regular everyday Internet and its wealth of Web 2.0 applications and mobile Internet have started to blur. 
It now appears that an important impact of the iPhone has been to bring the smartphone category into the mainstream consumer consciousness. 
The wireless application developer has long been challenged by the myriad of device types, interfaces, carrier preferences, and version of Java and Brew. Indeed, industries have been created to port and mediate applications between these various client specifications.  
Once the interface of all mobile devices standardizes – at least to the extent it has in the Web – with a couple of browser and capability types, the efficiency, economic viability and speed of innovation for wireless Web applications should dramatically increase. In essence, an entire mediation industry will be removed from the equation, leaving more profit opportunity for the creators of content, applications and, yes, even the carriers.
 
The key enablers for moving the wireless Web into a modern era are in place. High-speed networks can now enable rich media, Web 2.0 applications and enhanced interactivity. The cost of larger LCD screens, processors and memory have become economical for lower-priced smartphones.    
Consumers are beginning to the cross the chasm of these devices being just for business to using them as a primary consumer device. A quick survey of recent smartphones shows a large selection available at $99, a significant decrease from just 6 months ago. The era of large screen, high-speed martphone being part of the “free” entry phone collection is not too far removed. At that point the interoperable browsing capability on a large screen will be a must have feature.
The future is big, bright, shiny and fast, has lots of memory – and less middlemen.

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Here comes Google!

by mobileman (09/14/2007 - 04:33)

Here comes Google …
The market has yet to catch its breathe on the iPhone, as rumors of the Google phone continue to circulate. Google, like Apple, is a world-class, capable company that innovates at a dizzying pace.
Its resources seem almost limitless as it sets its sights on a bigger slice of the mobile market. Will it just be a handset? A bid on spectrum, an outright purchase of a wireless carrier? If I were sitting at Google I would proceed with great caution.
     
     
     
    
Google should dust off all the press of the failed ESPN MVNO and learn from it. ESPN has wonderful content, a killer brand and is a marketing powerhouse. Their mobile content was on every carrier, with application innovation in sports being pushed and pushed. With these assets as a base, ESPN took the leap of faith to launch an MVNO and become a retail wireless carrier. 
     
The skill set to become a successful carrier includes:  retail distribution, mobile handset sourcing, customer service, billing, wireless network knowledge, wireless network operations (even if you have an MVNO), and mobile feature innovation across all mobile features (voice, IVR, LBS, games, music, social networking, messaging, etc.). Look at the above list and determine which competencies ESPN had before they decided to place a big bet on wireless?
Great content is not enough. ESPN had an overly expensive phone with limited distribution, a post-pay model, few features other than sports, no family plans, etc.
Virgin Mobile has been successful because they actually ran other wireless MVNO services (in the U.K.) before they launched in the U.S. They had the necessary corporate skill set and have been successful.
This now gets me back to Google. On the surface, it has some direct parallels to ESPN. Google’s existing wireless services are very popular and are on most every carrier. They are best in class at innovating web-based products and then applying those features and functionalities to mobile. They have just launched a version of their incredible cash engine, adwords, for mobile applications.
As was the case for ESPN, they are firing on all mobile cylinders. By continuing on their present course, they will be a significant and dominant player in mobile content, search, applications and advertising for the foreseeable future.
Is the talk and effort on spectrum auctions and Google handsets a negotiating tactic for better terms from existing carriers, or is it the far-reaching aspirations of the Web’s most dominant player? Is it a tactic, a strategy, or corporate hubris?
Google clearly has the financial capability to acquire all the wireless network talent and competency it needs to complement its Web prowess, should it choose to do so. 
The moves that Google makes, and succeeds or fails at, will have industry-forming impact for years to come. 
This is a very interesting time for all of us!
Even these carriers have Google

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Iphone - Chapter One - Crash and Burn

by mobileman (09/07/2007 - 20:37)

Iphone – The Next Chapter
In June and July I gave my view of the then newly released Iphone. In summary, I thought it was a great Ipod and a poor phone.   Lousey keyboard, no MMS, no ringtones (until recently) , lower speed data, etc.   
   
It looks like Apple agrees, at least partly. 
   
The introduction of the Iphone-less Ipod (aka the ITouch) is a great addition the the Ipod line. It’s introduction also undercuts the techno sex appeal of the Iphone.
   
Then,  we have the biggest news of the week – the $200 price cut in the Iphone – Wow! Not only was there a  price cut,  but Steve Jobs (whom I really do respect) tried to spin it as a success story!
  
 If you are selling the hottest gizmo on the block and they are flying of the retail shelves, you do not cut the price. 
    
When demand falls,  you cut price 5-10%, not 33%. You cut prices by that amount when you have a potential disaster on your hands.   With a user base revolt on their hands, Apple then agrees to rebate all Iphone users $100 worth of Apple credit.
There is a problem in Iphone-land.   The stock market also agreed , punishing Apple’s stock with a drop of 12 points in the last two days , a 8% drop in value and a loss of around $10 Billion (with a B!) in market value.
    
The early adapters gobbled up the hype and the product. The strategy of having the techno elite show off their shiny toys to envious friends who would also rush to buy them did not work.   The Iphone  marketing virus stopped. Why?
    
As I predicted the,   the phone features on the the Iphone have been panned by pundits and consumers alike. With the bulk of the value in a “cool” Ipod, paying the $50-$60/month to AT&T seems prohibitive.
    
The mobile phone market was not invented by Apple. The competition is fierce and the price pressure is immense. With the sale of nearly  1 Million Iphones, Apple is a small blip on the marketscape of mobile devices. The Research in Motion Blackberry has over 8 Million consumers. Nokia sells over 100M every three months!
    
Apple will learn, adapt and come back.   The genetic mutation of IPods, mobile phones and online commerce has created the first model of a new species. Like DNA based species, this one will have a learning curve, some painful near death experiences and many natural predators.  This is just chapter one of a long novel, enjoy it.

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iPhone -- First Days, First Reactions

by mobileman (07/16/2007 - 23:15)

iPhone -- First Days, First Reactions: The Good, Bad and Ugly!

I have been using my iPhone as my main mobile device for the last 5 days.  I did this by having my main mobile number forwarded to my iPhone.  During this time, I used the phone at "work," at “play” and while traveling to Florida.  Here are my initial findings:

 

 

  First, the Sexy non-phone aspects: 

 

 

+++++++++++++The Pluses+++++++++++++ 

If you want to attract a crowd – just whip out your iPhone.  I have gotten lots of  “oohs, aahs, wows and omgs.”  It enhances your sense of self-worth and may even make you more sexy. (Although you have to read my wife’s blog to find that out!) 

I downloaded the movie “Miracle” to watch on a plane.  I chose this movie because I can watch it a hundred times and not got bored.  It is a classic – almost as good as “lap Shot”.  (But that’s the subject of another blog)

Watching movies on the iPhone is spectacular.  It is a very good (not great) personal movie player.  The movie player would be better with a few more DVD-like controls such as slow-forward and back, frame-by-frame, etc.  You can slide the time forward and back, but not with much precision. 

The Safari Web browser works well once you get the hang of it.  The Edge network is okay, not great.  3G would be much better, probably at the cost of battery life.

The photo viewer with position sensing is a real “showy” feature.  The ability to flip through an album on the iPhone, as you would a real album, is nice.

The music player is a latest-generation iPod.  I really like the carousel album selector.

 

 

 

The So-So features:

 The e-mail function is cool.  It would be cooler with a Blackberry client or activesync for corporate e-mail.

The camera is okay, but not the best feature.

 

   Google Maps gets a so-so from me because it lacks the killer feature: GPS. 

 It does however make for a great game to kill time.  Try this: Without typing in the address, try to tap into each Major League stadium and check out if there is a game!  You get an extra point if you can tell who is playing, and 10 points for the score!

Keyboard:

I have to admit that it is better than I expected, but nowhere near that of a real keyboard.  I am able to type using one finger (my pinky).  My letter accuracy is about 70%.  If I try the normal two-thumb method that I have used on Blackberrys and Blackjacks, my accuracy falls to near 0%.  So, I would say that the keyboard is slightly better than triple-tapping phone keys, and far less than a real keyboard.

 

 --------Some Negatives:------------

 

 The headset plug:

I was eager to watch a movie on my recent plane trip using my noise-cancelling headset.  I plug them into the iPhone and they canceled out ... everything.  After a moment, I figured out that the plug on the supplied iPhone headset is not standard.  I am sure there will be many adapters available.  This served as an annoyance on my first movie experience. 

 The phone features:

The phone features, surprisingly (or perhaps not), are the least-impressive features of the iPhone.  The voice quality seems very suspect.  People I called really noticed a reduction in voice quality.  Several relatives were not able to recognize my voice!  To verify that this was not the network, I called them back with my AT&T Blackjack, and there was no problem.

 

I still have not figured out how to download ringtones. 

Where is the MMS?

I sent an MMS message from a VZW phone.  The message arrived as an SMS that instructs me to go to a website (www.viewmymessage.com) with a specific login and password to view the multimedia message.  This is a great solution for 1997, not 2007, and certainly not on the most advanced piece of mobile gear ever produced!!

 

 Interestingly, MMS messages I sent  from AT&T phones never arrived on the device.

 

 It appears to me that the phone features were given low priorty,

 

 Battery Life: 

The battery life – as I predicted – seems to be an issue.  I used the iPhone to watch my movie for about 105 minutes, made 34 minutes of calls, browsed the Internet for 57 minutes, listened to music for 25 minutes,  viewed photos for about 30 minutes and had about 5 hours of standby time.  This started around 7 am. By 6 pm, my iPhone was dead.

I am confident that if all you did on the iPhone was make calls, the battery life would not be an issue.  But if that is all you are going to, why buy an iPhone?

 

 We will have to see if this a big issue in the market.

 Lastly:  The Nana Test  

As the true test of these features, I gave my iPhone to my 70-something mother.  She was able to use many of these features without issue.  This is the real miracle.  She is not the most technically oriented person.  She has a Web TV from 1997.  The UI was intuitive enough for someone who has trouble mastering her simple Nokia phone.  This is a thumbs-up for the Apple UI engineers.

 


Other iphone blogs: 

http://www.theiphoneblog.com/

http://blogs.zdnet.com/topic/iPhone.html

http://www.theiphoneblogs.com/

 

 

 

 

 

More on my iPhone trial in a couple of days.

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Activation Success and two thumbs up for iTunes!

by mobileman (07/12/2007 - 05:16)


Activation success!  Finally – I got my iPhone activated.  It took a new SIM card, opening an AT&T account for a non-iPhone, then using iTunes to upgrade the account.  To really test out the iPhone, I’ve decided to forward my regular business mobile phone to the iPhone for a week.  I will let you know what I think of the phone next week. 

One clear groundbreaking aspect of the iPhone delivery system is that you need iTunes to activate your phone.  This is a huge shift from the normal phone store activation and associated handholding.  It also speaks volumes to the absolute domination of Apple in the online music store environment.  They have successfully leveraged their position of selling all forms of digital content to selling digital services. 

Speaking of iTunes:  I have to give two big thumbs up to the developers of this amazing application.  I know there have been compatibility issues in the past, but this new version seems totally awesome.  The integration with the iPhone and iStore appears seamless.  The graphical interface is compelling, the navigation is engaging and easy.  The application is fast, the Web integration is great.  Wow, Wow, Wow!  Nice job from the Jobs boys!

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Iphone Activation- Like a rat in a Maze

by mobileman (07/11/2007 - 03:16)

Caught in IPhone activation maze! 

So- I got my long awaited Iphone – Nice and shiny, futuristic, almost alien-like

Now all I have to do is activate it, easy ? Well here is the long story (It does not end well)

 

I want to activate my Iphone on the pay as you go plan, not a monthly subscription.  I take my iphone, plug it into my PC and volia – Itunes starts an activation process. 

 I think, “This is promising, so far so good” 

I had been  told by a “reliable” source that if you enter a bogus SSN (999-99-9999) you will be kicked into a pay as you go plan and then you enter your credit card and all is good to go. 

  I follow that path and after 5 minutes of thinking , Itunes gives me a message that I will receive an email with further instructions.

I check my email, and I have an email from Apple that says …. You guessed it… that I will receive an email with further instructions.

Ten minutes later I get a another email with a 800 number and a 14 digit code.  I call the number and give the guy the code and the fun really begins.

It seems my web account is somehow locked to postpay and he does not have authority to change it.  He is from the Iphone activation company and is the hero in the comedy that is about to insue.

He first assures me that AT&T customer care can make the necessary adjustments and makes a three-way call with a representative.  After explaining my dilemma, the rep asks for my phone number, which , of course I do not have.

What? 

No AT&T phone number? 

Okay . I will transfer you to the Port department

  Before I know it , the activation rep and I are on the line with AT&T porting.

As you probably already guessed, Porting is for people transferring their number to AT&T, not for people who do not have an AT&T number and want one.  This flaw in our solution path is quickly realized by all parties .  We are then told that the Pre-Paid department is what we want.

My activation rep and I then call the AT&T pre-paid department.  Heather was very nice in explaining that they have nothing to do with Iphones and that we must call the special Iphone department.

 So- off we go on another call to the Iphone department.  My dilemma is explained to the rather stern representative at the Iphone department and when she learned that I had good credit and thus was post-pay eligible I was told that a pay as you go account was not an option for me.  I asked "Why?"

 I was told that you have to have bad credit to get a pay as you go account. 

 Uh? 

 I asked her if there was anyway they would be willing to accept my good credit money (which I think is worth the same or more than bad credit money) for Iphone usage?  I was told – no!  I asked – would you rather not have me as a customer?  Don’t you want the revenue?  And of course I was told – “Is there anything else I can help you with today, Sir?.....no……thank you for calling AT&T……click”

But- the story does not end there.    The activation rep who has been my guide in this adventure of hitchhiking through the Iphone customer service maze, decided that all of this just did not make sense.  He decided to contact his supervision and explain the situation.  Maybe that would enable me to give AT&T my money.

Another 10 minutes passes and the patient, but now defeated rep told me that the best advice he could get is to go to an  AT&T store and maybe they can help you. 

 I will try that tomorrow.   Do you think it will help?

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iPhone Part Deux

by mobileman (06/19/2007 - 16:00)

The best part of the iPhone will be the most controversial.  Where is the keyboard?  Other devices have tried the soft-keyboard approach.  For those of us old enough to remember, the first one of note was the Apple Newton.  

 

 

 

 

Same hype, same paradigm shift.  The Newton left a big crater when it crashed, one that created “shock and awe” throughout a generation of devices. 

 

Next came the Palm.  The first successful soft-keyboard device for data.  This worked because the keyboard was still present – it was your PC.  The Palm succeeds because it was a remote data representation of data normally stored on your PC. 

When the Palm morphed into a wireless device – The Treo – it got a keyboard.  Why?  Because it now was a generator of data – not just “read-only.”  The Treo sends and receives e-mail and text messages, and therefore needs a keyboard.  

Now we are back to the Iphone.  No keyboard, but packed with connectivity, GSM with GPRS and Wifi.  As a phone, its owners will have a need to text and send e-mail.  Will the soft keyboard work for them?  I have serious doubts in this regard.  For those of us with larger fingers, or for those who have trouble with a Treo-sized keyboard, the idea of using a touchscreen keyboard for texts and e-mails seems daunting.

Prediction:  The next generation of iPhone will have a real keyboard.

  

 

 

 

 

Some more on the iPhone in my next iPhone installment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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iPhone Mania -- Boom or Bust?

by mobileman (06/15/2007 - 14:52)

First, some simple questions -- What is the iPhone? Who will buy it? And why? 
 
At $500 for the low-end model, this is an expensive luxury item.  It will have little impact on Blackberry, Treo or BlackJack sales for one reason: Those devices are bought with "OPM" -- other people's money.  I find it hard to imagine corporate IT departments authorizing Iphone purchase in lieu of the Blackberry. 
So, until the price point gets to sub $200, this will be a museum piece in AT&T stores.  That outcome is also great for AT&T.  People will come to their stores to see the new cool device, and buy something else!
 
More on the iPhone in my next post.  Enjoy the weekend!

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